Sector Study Maps
Sector Study
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Benchmarks Census Count
2010 Census of non-farm businesses
 Average
12 mo.
APD
Average APD
12 month Absolute PD
as of 1/1/2024 through 12/31/2024
QoQ Change (BP's)
From 10/1/2023		 YoY Change (BP's)
From 1/1/2023
Credit Quality Distribution
Low Qtl
25% of businesses have PD’s better than the Low Qtl
12 month Absolute PD
as of 1/1/2024 through 12/31/2024
QoQ Change (BP's)
From 10/1/2023		 YoY Change (BP's)
From 1/1/2023
Median
50% of businesses are better/worse than the Median
12 month Absolute PD
as of 1/1/2024 through 12/31/2024
QoQ Change (BP's)
From 10/1/2023		 YoY Change (BP's)
From 1/1/2023
Hi Qtl
25% of businesses have PD’s worse than the Hi Qtl
12 month Absolute PD
as of 1/1/2024 through 12/31/2024
QoQ Change (BP's)
From 10/1/2023		 YoY Change (BP's)
From 1/1/2023
United States 32522994
3.57%
44 59
1.10%
16 15
2.22%
30 34
4.49%
56 74
Alaska 63644
3.45%
45 64
1.27%
18 23
2.36%
33 45
4.39%
60 82
Alabama 424239
3.59%
49 55
1.21%
17 18
2.34%
33 36
4.54%
63 71
Arkansas 297635
3.51%
42 60
1.16%
17 18
2.27%
31 38
4.44%
55 77
Arizona 579083
4.06%
45 47
1.18%
16 16
2.45%
31 31
5.08%
57 57
California 4063657
4.29%
56 103
1.13%
15 11
2.47%
33 42
5.37%
71 125
Colorado 648236
3.58%
43 56
1.16%
19 20
2.29%
33 38
4.52%
56 72
Connecticut 349513
3.18%
33 41
1.14%
16 16
2.14%
27 30
4.03%
42 54
District of Columbia 76768
3.59%
23 14
1.04%
9 4
2.17%
18 9
4.55%
34 20
Delaware 86696
3.34%
53 61
1.02%
14 13
2.07%
31 33
4.21%
68 78
Florida 2467578
4.15%
49 76
1.18%
16 16
2.49%
32 39
5.22%
64 94
Georgia 1082086
4.44%
71 98
1.12%
13 11
2.49%
35 40
5.52%
87 115
Hawaii 132323
3.48%
45 72
1.21%
19 22
2.30%
34 44
4.38%
60 90
Iowa 372764
2.92%
34 46
0.99%
16 16
1.91%
27 31
3.68%
44 57
Idaho 205295
3.53%
56 65
1.21%
19 26
2.33%
38 46
4.46%
71 82
Illinois 1325175
3.42%
40 57
1.06%
15 15
2.14%
28 34
4.33%
53 75
Indiana 598099
3.23%
38 55
1.08%
17 17
2.09%
30 35
4.08%
50 69
Kansas 311036
3.20%
52 55
1.02%
13 14
2.00%
28 28
3.98%
62 67
Kentucky 384752
3.21%
41 41
1.08%
16 19
2.09%
30 33
4.05%
54 55
Louisiana 471515
3.75%
49 59
1.18%
19 17
2.36%
35 36
4.73%
64 75
Massachusetts 664133
3.35%
40 49
1.13%
16 16
2.19%
28 32
4.25%
53 63
Maryland 595595
3.28%
45 40
1.01%
11 11
2.04%
26 23
4.13%
55 50
Maine 151705
3.12%
40 50
1.21%
18 20
2.18%
30 36
3.95%
52 65
Michigan 916867
3.19%
41 49
1.05%
16 17
2.06%
28 33
4.03%
52 62
Minnesota 671729
2.93%
36 53
0.98%
15 15
1.90%
27 31
3.68%
46 66
Missouri 586505
3.37%
36 49
1.09%
18 17
2.16%
30 33
4.25%
47 63
Mississippi 292952
3.86%
52 67
1.17%
19 18
2.38%
35 39
4.87%
66 86
Montana 150362
3.32%
46 52
1.13%
19 22
2.17%
33 39
4.18%
57 65
North Carolina 953004
3.47%
42 42
1.10%
15 15
2.19%
28 28
4.38%
54 53
North Dakota 161011
2.81%
43 51
1.03%
18 19
1.90%
31 35
3.55%
55 65
Nebraska 232402
3.22%
39 46
1.04%
16 18
2.05%
28 33
4.05%
51 60
New Hampshire 138651
3.19%
39 36
1.19%
18 20
2.18%
30 31
4.03%
49 46
New Jersey 878316
3.24%
40 47
1.01%
14 13
2.03%
27 28
4.08%
52 60
New Mexico 158661
3.50%
43 34
1.22%
19 21
2.32%
32 32
4.43%
55 44
Nevada 276007
4.21%
40 81
1.20%
20 18
2.52%
34 43
5.31%
53 102
New York 2213579
3.12%
34 39
1.01%
11 11
1.99%
23 23
3.92%
42 47
Ohio 1026148
3.12%
38 49
1.07%
16 18
2.06%
28 34
3.94%
49 63
Oklahoma 373403
3.74%
50 67
1.18%
19 17
2.35%
33 37
4.69%
62 81
Oregon 418375
3.38%
41 47
1.21%
19 23
2.27%
32 38
4.27%
53 61
Pennsylvania 1136799
2.96%
38 47
1.03%
16 17
1.97%
28 32
3.75%
49 61
Rhode Island 100445
3.44%
46 49
1.13%
15 14
2.21%
30 30
4.34%
59 62
South Carolina 434077
3.50%
42 38
1.16%
16 17
2.26%
30 28
4.43%
55 50
South Dakota 135605
2.99%
44 49
1.02%
16 15
1.95%
30 30
3.76%
56 62
Tennessee 634337
3.46%
38 54
1.15%
17 17
2.25%
30 35
4.37%
49 68
Texas 2734269
4.00%
51 47
1.15%
17 15
2.42%
34 31
5.04%
64 61
Utah 298658
3.73%
28 60
1.17%
22 22
2.35%
34 42
4.71%
43 76
Virginia 763694
3.28%
38 44
1.03%
13 11
2.06%
26 26
4.14%
50 55
Vermont 87711
3.18%
47 52
1.17%
15 18
2.17%
30 35
4.02%
61 67
Washington 656243
3.50%
47 64
1.22%
18 22
2.32%
34 43
4.43%
60 81
Wisconsin 554348
2.99%
39 46
1.04%
17 18
1.98%
28 33
3.78%
50 60
West Virginia 118131
3.06%
39 47
1.08%
17 18
2.04%
28 34
3.87%
51 60
Wyoming 69180
3.58%
37 69
1.21%
25 26
2.34%
38 47
4.52%
49 87
Industry Sector Detail for United States
Expand All
NAICS Description Census Count
2010 Census of non-farm businesses
 Average
12 mo.
APD
Average APD
12 month Absolute PD
as of 1/1/2024 through 12/31/2024
QoQ Change (BP's)
From 10/1/2023		 YoY Change (BP's)
From 1/1/2023
Credit Quality Distribution
Low Qtl
25% of businesses have PD’s better than the Low Qtl
12 month Absolute PD
as of 1/1/2024 through 12/31/2024
QoQ Change (BP's)
From 10/1/2023		 YoY Change (BP's)
From 1/1/2023
Median
50% of businesses are better/worse than the Median
12 month Absolute PD
as of 1/1/2024 through 12/31/2024
QoQ Change (BP's)
From 10/1/2023		 YoY Change (BP's)
From 1/1/2023
Hi Qtl
25% of businesses have PD’s worse than the Hi Qtl
12 month Absolute PD
as of 1/1/2024 through 12/31/2024
QoQ Change (BP's)
From 10/1/2023		 YoY Change (BP's)
From 1/1/2023
11
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 2287081
2.02%
37 50
0.72%
11 11
1.35%
22 27
2.52%
46 62
21
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 109219
3.11%
73 87
1.15%
35 32
2.13%
57 60
3.94%
94 111
23
Construction 3156856
3.94%
103 119
1.25%
45 43
2.50%
80 82
4.99%
135 153
31-33
Manufacturing 439740
3.09%
45 49
0.96%
11 11
1.93%
26 27
3.88%
56 61
42
Wholesale Trade 786117
2.95%
22 46
0.98%
15 13
1.91%
22 27
3.71%
27 57
44-45
Retail Trade 2996551
3.62%
26 61
1.21%
16 16
2.31%
22 32
4.53%
31 73
48-49
Transportation and Warehousing 1688761
7.47%
119 267
2.40%
62 103
4.88%
108 200
9.66%
170 363
51
Information 358602
3.95%
49 84
1.07%
10 5
2.26%
23 28
4.85%
53 95
52
Finance and Insurance 1176950
2.65%
23 21
0.92%
9 5
1.75%
17 11
3.33%
28 25
53
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 3059629
3.81%
47 35
1.09%
11 10
2.29%
26 21
4.78%
57 42
54
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 4331402
3.27%
37 57
0.92%
10 7
1.94%
22 23
4.11%
46 69
56
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 2456731
4.06%
68 94
0.94%
15 15
2.17%
36 42
4.98%
83 110
61
Educational Services 102059
4.02%
45 51
1.34%
11 10
2.60%
26 26
5.08%
57 65
62
Health Care and Social Assistance 2757647
3.27%
25 36
1.06%
8 7
2.08%
16 18
4.14%
33 46
71
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1509831
4.05%
11 60
1.25%
17 17
2.50%
21 33
5.07%
14 73
72
Accommodation and Food Services 1076373
4.74%
45 70
1.50%
9 18
3.00%
23 40
5.99%
57 87
81
Other Services (except Public Administration) 4215724
4.11%
49 57
1.20%
9 11
2.50%
25 30
5.20%
62 72
92
Public Administration 13721
3.02%
41 34
1.50%
14 13
2.39%
28 23
3.81%
53 44
ABOUT SECTOR STUDY

In 2010, PayNet introduced AbsolutePD Outlook as the first ever source for county and industry default forecasts. AbsolutePD Outlook takes advantage of the millions of forecasts on individual businesses that PayNet calculates with the AbsolutePD forward-looking probability of default model. These individual business forecasts are aggregated by four-digit NAICS for each county in the United States. PayNet models these forecasts across the Census Count population of businesses such that there is a default forecast available for each county where one or more businesses exist in any four digit NAICS sector (see Census Count) below for applications.

As you enter the page, the Sector Study displays the National Sector Study.

The Benchmark Section displays the forecast for the United States and, in the window shade with the orange carat, the forecast detail for the 50 states and DC – clicking on the carat will expand the list to show them all. Below the Benchmark Section, the Sector Detail displays the National forecast for up to 4-digit NAICS (for SBInsights Subscribers).

The Sector Detail uses the same window shade approach as the Benchmark Section and you can drill down through any Sector by clicking on the orange carats. There is also a “Search NAICS” box just above the Benchmark Section (see NAICS Search below for more information).

Using the report selection panel:

To drill down geographically through the Benchmark and Sector Study forecasts:

Choose State:

Using the dropdown list. The Benchmark section will now display the US and State benchmark forecasts and the Benchmark window shade can be expanded to show the forecast for every county in the state.

Choose County:

Using the lookup feature, you can search for any County (or Commuting Zone) in the chosen State. Selecting a County will cause the Benchmark Section to now display the US, State and County benchmark forecasts and the Sector Detail section will show the default forecasts for the industries where the current Census identified businesses existing in that county.

Choose Market Radius:

The market radius features allows you to select adjacent counties that fall within the selected radius (in miles) and then aggregates the forecasts of the businesses located in those counties into a combined forecast. Selecting a market radius will cause the Benchmark Section to now display the US, State and Market benchmark forecasts with the list of counties in that radius and their forecasts in the Benchmark window shade. The Sector Detail section will show the default forecasts for the industries for businesses in that market where the current Census identified businesses existing in those counties.

Export Results:

You can export the results from the results of your selection in a printer friendly format or as a .csv file that will open in Microsoft Excel.  Both the Benchmark and Sector Detail sections will be exported.

Suggested applications for the Sector Study:

  • Underwriting analysis of regional and industry risk trend and forecast – save time over searching for this information.
  • Monitoring concentrations by region and industry to spot emerging risks.
  • Board reporting of objective measures of local economic conditions.

For more information about the many application of the PayNet AbsolutePD Sector Study please contact your PayNet representative or Customer Support at 866-825-3400.

BENCHMARK TABLE

This table provides the overall default forecasts for the geographical selection of the user interface. You can compare any industry sector from the Sector Detail to the overall forecasts of the US, the State and County or Market.

SECTOR DETAIL TABLE

There are 423 industry sectors (2-, 3- and 4-digit NAICS) in the Sector Detail. They are rolled up into their 2- and 3-digit parent sectors and can be displayed by clicking on the orange carat symbols in front of any NAICS code. This is subscriber content, for more information about a subscription please contact SBinsights@paynetonline.com.

CREDIT QUALITY DISTRIBUTION

For any given population of businesses, whether you are looking at the entire nation or a single county, the average AbsolutePD forecast doesn’t tell you enough about that population.

The distribution of businesses based on their credit quality provides a more detailed analysis, see Figure 1. We perform this analysis on the population of each individual row in the Benchmark and Sector Detail and for each time period: Current Quarter, Quarter-over-Quarter and Year-over-Year Changes.

CENSUS COUNT

The Sector Study uses the business counts from the 2010 US Census that was published in 2012. Note that Agriculture businesses are tracked by the US Department of Agriculture. The historic time frames available by selecting “As of Date” in the user interface use business counts from the most recently published census data for the selected time period.

NAICS LOOKUP

Allows you to quickly find the 2-, 3- or 4-digit NAICS information by typing related keywords or NAICS codes. For example, typing “62” will display any industry with NAICS code containing “62” and lead you quickly to all of the Healthcare related industry sectors.

The NAICS search will also guide you the 4-digit parent sector of the industries with 5- and 6-digit NAICS codes.  For instance, Veterinary practices (NAICS 54194) is a sub-sector ofOther Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (NAICS 5419).

National Credit Conditions
 
Current
 
Change
SBLI1
SBLI

The PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI) measures the volume of new commercial loans and leases to small businesses.

  • “Current” — a seasonally adjusted index (January 2005=100) for the most recently reported month
  • “Change” — based on same-month one-year-prior; a higher number indicates increased lending activity
159.6
3.6%
SBDI1
SBDI

The PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI) measures the percentage of loans to small businesses that are more than 30 days past due, but less than 91 days past due. Financial institutions consider SBDI an invaluable tool for business planning and operations to provide a more in-depth understanding of financial stress and early warning of future insolvency.

  • “Current” — the delinquency rate of small businesses for the most recently reported month, calculated as an index and seasonally adjusted
  • “Change” — based on same-month one-year-prior; a higher number indicates greater financial stress
1.71%
24 bps
SBDFI1
SBDFI

The PayNet Small Business Default Index (SBDFI) measures the percent of loans and leases to small businesses that have defaulted in the past 12 months. Registered users can drill down to 988 indices segmented by the 18 major NAICS for the US and 50 states plus D.C.

PayNet SBDFI offers an advanced look at banking and financial distress conditions up to three months before the release of traditional FDIC measures, giving valuable early insights into market conditions for financial services executives, economists, policy makers and regulators.

3.18%
95 bps
Outlook2
Outlook

The PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook forecasts the commercial loan default rate for businesses across the US. These forecasts are recalibrated each quarter based on the current macro-economic statistics.

  • “Current” — the default rate forecast for the end of the next four quarters
  • “Change” — difference from the prior quarter forecast
3.57%
44 bps
1As of Feb-2024 with YoY Change.
212 month Forecast as of 01/01/2024 with QoQ Change
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