Sector Study Maps
Sector Study
Login or register to view the Outlook by geography and industry.

Visitors can view any State default forecast using the map and download a sample report.

Registered Users can view highlights of Industry and County risk by State.

Subscribers have full access to State, County and customized Market reports displaying credit quality distribution and migration down to 4-digit NAICS Industry Groups.

National Credit Conditions

The PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI) measures the volume of new commercial loans and leases to small businesses.

  • “Current” — a seasonally adjusted index (January 2005=100) for the most recently reported month
  • “Change” — based on same-month one-year-prior; a higher number indicates increased lending activity

The PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI) measures the percentage of loans to small businesses that are more than 30 days past due, but less than 91 days past due. Financial institutions consider SBDI an invaluable tool for business planning and operations to provide a more in-depth understanding of financial stress and early warning of future insolvency.

  • “Current” — the delinquency rate of small businesses for the most recently reported month, calculated as an index and seasonally adjusted
  • “Change” — based on same-month one-year-prior; a higher number indicates greater financial stress
8 bps

The PayNet Small Business Default Index (SBDFI) measures the percent of loans and leases to small businesses that have defaulted in the past 12 months. Registered users can drill down to 988 indices segmented by the 18 major NAICS for the US and 50 states plus D.C.

PayNet SBDFI offers an advanced look at banking and financial distress conditions up to three months before the release of traditional FDIC measures, giving valuable early insights into market conditions for financial services executives, economists, policy makers and regulators.

80 bps

The PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook forecasts the commercial loan default rate for businesses across the US. These forecasts are recalibrated each quarter based on the current macro-economic statistics.

  • “Current” — the default rate forecast for the end of the next four quarters
  • “Change” — difference from the prior quarter forecast
20 bps
1As of May-2024 with YoY Change.
212 month Forecast as of 04/01/2024 with QoQ Change