PayNet Risk Insight Suite | Credit Conditions

Market Insights Maps

Lending
Activity
(SBLI)

Loan
Performance
(SBDI)

Loan
Performance
(SBDFI)

Forecast
Conditions
(Outlook)

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PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI)

SBLI

The Small Business Lending Index (SBLI) measures the volume of new commercial loans and leases to small businesses .

The PayNet Small Business Lending Index is formulated on a monthly basis at the national level and is indexed so that January 2005 equals 100.

The PayNet Small Business Lending Index (PayNet SBLI) is segmented into 988 indices at the national, state, and industry levels which are formulated on a rolling 12-month basis due to the volatility of smaller sample sizes.

US Rolling-12=PayNet SBLI at the national level
US NAICS xx Rolling-12=PayNet SBLI for the xx NAICS industry (for example Agriculture) at the national level
ss Rolling-12=PayNet SBLI for the state of SS (for example NY)
ss NAICS xx Rolling-12=PayNet SBLI for the xx NAICS industry within the state of ss

As of Sep-2024 with YoY Change.
Where: Jan 2006 = 100

PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI)

SBDI

The Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI) measures the percentage of loans to small businesses that are more than 30 days past due but less than 91 days past due.

The PayNet Small Business Lending Index reflects delinquencies at the national level.

The PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (PayNet SBDI) is segmented into 364 indices at the national, state, and industry level

As of Sep-2024 with YoY Change.

PayNet Small Business Default Index (SBDFI)

SBDFI

The Small Business Default Index (SBDFI) measures the percent of loans and leases to small businesses that have defaulted in the past 12 months. Registered users can drill down to 988 indices segmented by the 18 major NAICS for the US and 50 states plus D.C.

PayNet SBDFI offers an advanced look at banking and financial distress conditions up to three months before the release of traditional FDIC measures, giving valuable early insights into market conditions for financial services executives, economists, policy makers and regulators.

As of Sep-2024 with YoY Change.

PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook®

Outlook

The PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook forecasts the commercial loan default rate for businesses across the US. These forecasts are recalibrated each quarter based on the current macro-economic statistics.

“Current” — the default rate forecast for the end of the next four quarters
“Change” — difference from the prior quarter forecast

12 month Forecast as of 07/01/2024 with QoQ Change

National Credit Conditions

Current

Change

SBLI1

SBLI

The PayNet Small Business Lending Index (SBLI) measures the volume of new commercial loans and leases to small businesses.

“Current” — a seasonally adjusted index (January 2005=100) for the most recently reported month
“Change” — based on same-month one-year-prior; a higher number indicates increased lending activity

133.9

11.2%

SBDI1

SBDI

The PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index (SBDI) measures the percentage of loans to small businesses that are more than 30 days past due, but less than 91 days past due. Financial institutions consider SBDI an invaluable tool for business planning and operations to provide a more in-depth understanding of financial stress and early warning of future insolvency.

“Current” — the delinquency rate of small businesses for the most recently reported month, calculated as an index and seasonally adjusted
“Change” — based on same-month one-year-prior; a higher number indicates greater financial stress

1.82%

13 bps

SBDFI1

SBDFI

The PayNet Small Business Default Index (SBDFI) measures the percent of loans and leases to small businesses that have defaulted in the past 12 months. Registered users can drill down to 988 indices segmented by the 18 major NAICS for the US and 50 states plus D.C.

PayNet SBDFI offers an advanced look at banking and financial distress conditions up to three months before the release of traditional FDIC measures, giving valuable early insights into market conditions for financial services executives, economists, policy makers and regulators.

3.46%

68 bps

Outlook2

Outlook

The PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook forecasts the commercial loan default rate for businesses across the US. These forecasts are recalibrated each quarter based on the current macro-economic statistics.

“Current” — the default rate forecast for the end of the next four quarters
“Change” — difference from the prior quarter forecast

3.19%

26 bps

¹As of Sep-2024 with YoY Change.
²12 month Forecast as of 07/01/2024 with QoQ Change

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